TPP Overtakes KMT, Increasingly Difficult to Predict Strategic or Split Voting in 2024 Election
United Daily News, June 15, 2023
The popularity of both presidential candidate Ko Wen-je and his Taiwan People's Party (TPP) have recently shown strong gains in the polls. A recent poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation indicates that the support of the TPP has surpassed the Kuomintang (KMT) taking second place. Aside from surpassing the KMT, the tripartite balance of support is more worthy of attention.
Support for Ko and TPP Rising Because KMT and DPP Screwed Up
Mr. Ko’s popularity has risen, and so has his recent self-confidence day by day. But further analysis of the reality of his increased support may not be entirely due to Ko's personal factors.
Mr. Ko's visit to the United States earlier this year did not go well. The itinerary and the level of government officials he met were not as expected. He has learned his lesson, and his next trip to Japan is very solid. Mr. Ko's recent discussion with university students and his intent to invite former New Power Party Legislator Huang Kuo-chang to be the Minister of Justice have received a lot of attention and positive comments from young people. These are the reasons for Mr. Ko's rebound in support.
But the key to the recent increase in the support of Ko himself and his Party is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang themselves have screwed up. While the sexual harassment scandals blew up from the center of the DPP, and it has not yet completely stopped the bleeding, the KMT failed to make use of this opportunity because of the “drug feeding” case in a New Taipei kindergarten and the party’s own internal struggles. Support for the KMT presidential candidate and New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih and the party itself were significantly affected. The results of polls conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation highlight the mistakes made by the two parties, and the TPP and the Taiwan Statebuilding Party have benefited significantly.
Hou Mired in “Drug Feeding” Case, Lai Faces Challenges for DPP to Retain Legislative Majority
For DPP presidential candidate William Lai, although the sexual harassment case severely damaged the image of the party, KMT’s Hou Yu-ih is also deeply involved in the drug-feeding case quagmire. Hou did put forth an imposing manner to close the gap with Mr. Lai, and both of them lost supporters. What really threatens Mr. Lai is the leveling support for the three parties. It is getting less likely that the DPP will be the majority in Congress next year. Even if Mr. Lai wins, without the advantage of controlling both the administration and Congress, the difficulty for Lai to promote policies will be higher than that of President Tsai Ing-wen.
There are still nearly seven months before the presidential election next year. The support among the three presidential candidates and political parties may still fluctuate. The coming nominations for the vice president and legislators-at-large will be the two key factors that affect the election. It is foreseeable that the complexity and intensity of this election will be the highest since 2004, and strategic voting or split voting is very likely to appear in next year's general election.